5张牌炸金花

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                      1. 央行重申:人民币汇率有条件保持基本稳定

                        作者: 来源: 2014-12-18 09:47:215张牌炸金花

                         

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                        XUEJIAO

                        ZISHANGZHOUYILAI,DUOZHONGYINSUXIA,RENMINBIDUIMEIYUANHUILVLIANXU6GEJIAOYIRILEIJIBIANZHIDA0.8%,CHUANG2011NIANYILAIXINDI,LIANSHICHANG(CNH)RENMINBIGENGSHILEIJIBIANZHIYUQIANDIAN,ZI8YUE11RI“XINHUIGAI”HOU,SHICHANGZAICIBIAOXIANCHUDUIHUILVZOUSHIDEBUAN。

                        本周,全球瞩目的美联储加息决议即将靴子落地。在这一敏感时期,CFETS人民币汇率指数的推出更是“激起千层浪”,市场解读一时间喧嚣尘上。12月14日,央行再次发文称,CFETS指数的推出意在改变过去市场集中关注人民币对美元双边汇率这根深蒂固的逻辑,同时强调从中长期基本面看,人民币汇率有条件保持在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

                        5张牌炸金花“YUCANKAODANYIHUOBIXIANGBI,CANKAOYILANZIHUOBIGENGNENGFANYINGYIGUOSHANGPINHEFUWUDEZONGHEJINGZHENGLI,YEGENGNENGFAHUIHUILVDIAOJIEJINCHUKOU、TOUZIJIGUOJISHOUZHIDEZUOYONG。”ZHAOSHANGZHENGQUANHONGGUANYANJIUZHUGUANFENXISHIXIEYAXUANDUI《DIYICAIJINGRIBAO》JIZHEBIAOSHI。SHISHISHANG,SUIRANJINQIRENMINBIXIANGDUIMEIYUANYOUSUOBIANZHI,DANRUGUOCANKAOYILANZIHUOBI,RENMINBIYIRANCHUZAISHENGZHIQUSHIZHONG。

                        央行改变市场汇率惯性思维

                        ZI8YUE11RI“XINHUIGAI”HOU,RENMINBIZAICICHUXIANCHIXUBIANZHIQUSHI,BUFENSHICHANGRENSHIDANYOURENMINBIHUILVFENGXIANCHUXIANMINGXIANSHANGSHENG。

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                        5张牌炸金花ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,WEIGENGJIAQUANMIANDIFANYINGYIGUOHUOBIDEJIAZHIBIANHUA,12YUE11RI,ZHONGGUOWAIHUIJIAOYIZHONGXINSHOUCIFABUCFETSRENMINBIHUILVZHISHU。GAIZHISHUZUOWEIYIZHONGJIAQUANPINGJUNHUILV,ZHUYAOYONGLAIZONGHEJISUANRENMINBIDUIYILANZIWAIGUOHUOBIJIAQUANPINGJUNHUILVDEBIANDONG。

                        FABUDANGRI,YANGXINGZHUANFAZHONGGUOHUOBIWANGTEYUEPINGLUNYUANWENZHANGCHENG,CFETSRENMINBIHUILVZHISHUYOULIYUTUIDONGSHEHUIGUANCHARENMINBIHUILVSHIJIAODEZHUANBIANJUYOUZHONGYAOYIYI。

                        5张牌炸金花RANER,ZAIMEIYUANZOUQIANGYIJIRENMINBILIANXUBIANZHIDEDABEIJINGXIA,CFETSZHISHUDEFABUYINFABUFENSHICHANGRENSHICAICE,YANGXINGCIJUHUOWEIRENMINBIJINYIBUBIANZHIZUO“PUDIAN”。

                        5张牌炸金花BENZHOUSHOUGEJIAOYIRI,RENMINBIDUIMEIYUANBIANZHIYUQIBINGWEICHUXIANMINGXIANGAISHAN。

                        12YUE14RI,RENMINBIDUIMEIYUANZHONGJIANJIABAO6.4495,JIAOSHANGYIJIAOYIRI6.4358ZAIDUDAFUXIADIAO137GEJIDIAN。KAIPANHOU,RENMINBIJIQIHUILVJIAO6.4623DEKAIPANJIAKUAISUBIANZHIYUBAIDIAN,JIFENZHONGNEIRENMINBIYIJINGZUIDIXIADIEZHIRINEIZUIDIDIAN6.4665,DANSUIHOUHUILVCHUXIANMINGXIANLASHENG,CIHOUWEICHIZAI6.4590FUJIN,ZUIZHONGSHOUYU6.4591,XIAOFUBIANZHI0.06%。

                        ZAILIANSHICHANG(CNH),RENMINBIBIANZHIFENWEIGENGJIANONGHOU。12YUE14RIZAOPANSHI,RENMINBIDUIMEIYUANCHIXUZOUBIAN,YILUXIATANZHIRINEIZUIDIDIAN6.5610,JIAOKAIPANJIABIANZHI274GEJIDIAN,SUIRANSUIHOUCHUXIANXIAOFUFANDAN,DANZHENGTIRENGCHUYUBIANZHIQUJIAN,JIEZHI《DIYICAIJINGRIBAO》JIZHEFAGAOSHI,LIANRENMINBIDUIMEIYUANBAO6.5496,BIANZHI0.25%。

                        MOUSHANGYEYINXINGWAIHUICHANPINJINGLIZAIJIESHOU《DIYICAIJINGRIBAO》JIZHECAIFANGSHIBIAOSHI,ZUIJINSHICHANGSHANGDUIYURENMINBIBIANZHIYUQIQUESHIYOUSUOZENGQIANG,GOUHUIDERENSHUMINGXIANZENGDUO。TONGSHI“XUNWENSHIFOUYINGGAISUODINGHUILV,XUANZESHENMESHIDIANJIEHUIDEQIYEKEHUYEMINGXIANZENGDUO”。

                        GAICHANPINJINGLIDUIBENBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,ZUILINGRENDANYOUDESHI,BUSHAOQIYEKEHUZAIJINGLI8YUE11RIRENMINBIHUILVDAFUDIAOZHENGHOU,RENGRANQUEFATAOQIBAOZHIDEYISHI,“YIXIEKEHUHAISHIJIANCHI2013NIANQIANRENMINBIDANBIANSHENGZHIDEXIANGFA。”

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                        WEIZHENGQUEYINDAOSHICHANGLIJIECFETSRENMINBIHUILVZHISHUHANYI,12YUE14RI,YANGXINGZAICIZHUANFAZHONGGUOHUOBIWANGTEYUEPINGLUNYUANWENZHANGCHENG,“RENMINBIHUILVJUBEIDUIYILANZIHUOBIBAOCHIJIBENWENDINGDEJICHU”。

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                        CONGZHONGZHANGQIJIBENMIANKAN,CONGJINGJIZENGSU、LAODONGSHENGCHANLVZENGSU,YIJIDAZONGSHANGPINJIAGEXIAJIANGSHIWOGUOYOUTIAOJIANBAOCHIYIDINGGUIMODEMAOYISHUNCHA,ZAIJIASHANGWOGUOWAIHUICHUBEICHONGYU、CAIZHENGZHUANGKUANGLIANGHAO、JINRONGTIXIWENJIANDENGDUOZHONGYINSUZHICHENGXIA,WENZHANGJIANXINRENMINBIHUILVYOUTIAOJIANBAOCHIZAIHELIJUNHENGSHUIPINGSHANGDEJIBENWENDING。

                        “SHICHANGGUANCHARENMINBIHUILVDEYIGEXINLUOJIZHENGZAIZHUBUJIANLI”,ZUJIANYANGXINGDELIANGKUYONGXIN。

                        5张牌炸金花“SHIJIYOUXIAOHUILVDELINGHUO、SHUANGXIANGBODONG,CAIYINGGAICHENGWEICHANGTAIHUADEMUBIAO。”PINGANZHENGQUANSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAZHONGWEIRENWEI,BAITUODUIHUILVFUDONGDEKONGJU,GUANZHUSHIJIYOUXIAOHUILVHERENMINBIHUILVZHISHU,SHISHENHUAHUILVGAIGEDEZHONGYAOQIANTI。

                        人民币酝酿与美元脱钩?

                        BURONGHUSHIDESHI,CICICFETSRENMINBIZHISHUXUANBUDESHIJIBEISHOUSHICHANGGUANZHU,ZHENGCHUZAIKENENGTUIDONGMEIYUANZOUQIANGDEMEILIANCHUJIAXIQIANXI。

                        ZAIMEIYUANYUQIJIANGKAISHIXINYILUNSHENGZHIQUJIANSHI,RUIYINZHONGGUOSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAWANGTAODUI《DIYICAIJINGRIBAO》JIZHEBIAOSHI,XINDERENMINBIHUILVZHISHUYUSHIZHEXIANGRENMINBIYUMEIYUANTUOGOUYOUMAIJINYIBU。

                        “CFETSRENMINBIHUILVZHISHUDEFABU(ZUICHUGONGCANZHAO)YIWEIZHEYANGXINGDUIRENMINBIHUILVDANXINGDEGENGDARONGRENDU,YUSHIZHEXIANGRENMINBIYUMEIYUANTUOGOUYOUMAIJINYIBU。”RUIYINRENWEI,XINDERENMINBIHUILVZHISHUYELINGYANGXINGDEYIFACHUZHEIYANGDEXINHAO,JIZUIJINRENMINBIDUIMEIYUANDEWENHEBIANZHIYUQIWEIHURENMINBIHUILVWENDING、RENMINBIBUHUIDAFUBIANZHIDESHENGMINGSHIYIZHIDE。

                        5张牌炸金花“ZHEISHIRENMINBIYUMEIYUANZHENGSHITUOGOUDEXINHAO。”ZHAOSHANGYINXINGTONGYEJINRONGZONGBUGAOJIFENXISHILIUDONGLIANGYEDUIBENBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,YAOBAOCHILANZIWENDING,YIWEIZHEZAIMEIYUANDUIQITAHUOBISHENGZHISHIRENMINBIBIRANCHUXIANBIANZHI。YUCITONGSHI,RENMINBIDUIMEIYUANHUILVDEBODONGXINGJIANGHUIDAFUSHANGSHENG,QIYEHUILVFENGXIANJIANGJIASUBAOLU。DANHUILVGENGJIASHICHANGHUADEQUSHIJIANGDAOBIQIYEGUANZHUHUILVBIXIAN,BINGJIFAYANSHENGJIAOYISHICHANGDEHUOLI。

                        “MUQIANGUONEIDAXINGYANGQI、GUOQIZAIDUIDAIHUILVWENTISHANGFENGXIANPIANHAOGUODI,YIJINGNANYISHIYINGWEILAIDEHUILVFENGXIAN,HUILVSHICHANGHUAJIANGDUIQIQIDAODAOBIJIZHI,POSHIDAQIYEDUIHUILVYANSHENGPINDEFENGXIANPIANHAOSHANGSHENG;ERSHICHANGBODONGLVDEJIADAYUFENGXIANDESHANGSHENG,YOULIYUHUILVYANSHENGPINSHICHANGDECHUANGXIN,YUJIWAIHUIQIHUODENGXINPINZHONGYOUKENENGJIASUTUICHU。”LIUDONGLIANGSHUODAO。

                        但招商银行外汇交易主管张治青则认为,短期内人民币汇率不会脱钩美元。“市场存在多年的思维惯性,如果切换太快容易产生较大风险;中国央行的主要意图是通过指数来衡量人民币升贬值幅度,引导市场和民间正确看待人民币升贬值,慢慢将升贬值的关注点切换到指数上来。” 


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